SF Meetup - Fri, 4/25 in SF w/ Josh Dorkin & Brandon Turner

[J. Martin]

Please come welcome our special guests,
Bigger Pockets Founder & CEO @Joshua Dorkin and
Senior Editor & Community Director @Brandon Turner
for a fun night of BP Real Estate networking at this special SF meetup!The venue can fit over 100 guests, and everyone is welcome, so come say hello to your fellow BP members and RE investors, along with two key people who make this community happen!

What: BP Bay Area Master Meetup - SF
When: Friday, April 25, 2014, 5:30PM-9:00PM; Late night 9:05PM - ?
Where: Speakeasy Brewery (Brewhouse room)
1195 Evans Ave, San Francisco, CA 94124
Cesar Chavez exit off of 280 in SE corner of SF
Cost: Free; Bring cash for food and drink
Parking: Free in parking lot at venue, and free street parking for overflow
Food & Drink: Lots of Speakeasy Beers, and Mexican Food

Please RSVP by posting below, so I know how many are coming, and post a little about yourself below, tag others, etc, so you can make some connections before the meetup. I am scheduling this meetup in place of the monthly “East Bay Meetup” so we can have a venue where more BP members can join us, and we can hear each other better.

After 9PM, remaining after-hours folks will most likely be moving a few-minute drive away to Dogpatch Saloon, at 2496 3rd St, SF, 94107. Please check back on this posting the night before the meetup in case there are any unexpected changes.. but the meetup will be on! Thanks to Josh and Brandon for organizing the great community, and coming to say hello at the meetup! Also, special thanks to @Jaren Barnes for initiating our guests’ visit to the monthly BP meetup!

Hope to see lots of you there!
Best,
J Martin

[William Yeh]

Gonna try to make it out. @James Zachary I might be riding out of WC Bart as well. Let's coordinate.

[Joey Budka]

No way! The legendary Joshua Dorkin? THE founding father?! I will be there.

[Amit M.]

this'll be fun...and so close to me, perfect. Us city folks gets real lazy about commuting anywhere...

Btw I'm with @J. Martin on the 30 yr fixed as strategy. Last year I refied all my props to 30 yr fixed, as I plan to keep them real long time, and just HELOC/pull cash out in the future. It's a great strategy for long term high quality properties.

I'm pinging @Andrew Strauss as I believe he is friends with the owner of the speakeasy. Plus it's in the Bayview, and fortuitously I'm expected to close on my new Bayview 3 unit acquisition on Friday, April 25!! Man, too bad I don't drink, but hopefully the food's good and I'll celebrate with that. Cheers :)

[Account Closed]

Originally posted by @Johnson H.:

Looking forward to meeting Brandon, I've met Josh already, he is alright.. :)

Apparently you have met the man with the look, but haven't met the man with the brain. J is obviously the man with charisma, or shall I say party animal? Looking forward to meeting everyone.

With respect to interest rate, I beg to differ with you, J and even the legendary Bill Gulley. I agree there's a good probability that we will see the interest rate increasing up to 300 bp in the coming years, but no where close to 500 bp. If history is any indication, the Fed will put us right back in a recession after 150-200 BP increase this time.

The chart J showed above is beautiful. If you're a chartist, you would see that we have been making higher lows in the last 30+ years. We're in a balance sheet recession, and there is no way out. We're going the Japan route in terms of interest rate. The yield on rentals will gradually get compressed in the foreseeable future. We are likely not going to see housing going up on an average of 6% annually in the Bay Area. This is where I agree with Warren Buffett that the growth in our economy for the next 30 years will not be the same as the last 30 years. With that said, I'd be happy if we get 3% inflation for the Bay Area. That essentially means we're borrowing money for free on our properties after you factored in the mortgage interest deduction.

Now you know why I love talking to you and J. It stimulates the brain.

[Pete Tam]

Finally, I will get a chance to meet one of the well known SF investor @Amit M. I don't drink either and became a vegetarian so hoping that I can find veg options :)

[Johnson H.]

@Account Closed - Locking in a 30 year fixed isnt just a bet that rates are going to go up, it is also for piece of mind. I can go to sleep at night knowing that whatever happens in the world tomorrow, I am still paying the same amount for mortgage for the next 360 months and I dont need to worry about refinancing a balloon payment in the next 3, 5 or 7 years as with an ARM or commercial loan. The chart J posted did show lower low's after every decade, it is more pronounced if you include the 1970's during the time Volcker was in charge of the Fed. Banks are awash in liquidity from deposits and foreign investors are so worried about their local market they have purchased US Bonds and Treasuries to bring down rates. When emerging foreign economies are back on the upswing and China has solved their housing crisis, I would bet rates will be much higher than where we are today.

[Johnson H.]

@Amit M. - Looking forward to hearing about the closing of your 3 unit next Friday! Good job!

[Account Closed]

Sign me up for 2 people please. Hubby is coming with me :)

Thanks and see everyone soon!

[Dylan M.]

Wow, celebrity meetup! Unfortunately I already have plans for that evening. If I can think of a way to make it to the meetup, even for just a little while, I will do so.

[Joan C.]

Wow, what a great event, looking forward to meeting all these knowledgeable and experienced investors.

Minh L, definitely would love to carpool with you if there is still a seat available.

[Brandon Foken]

Count me in, I'll be there for sure.

[Ken Lau]

Count me in! Thanks for setting it up, J.

@Johnson H. I should be closing on a home in the Houston area this Friday. I'll give you details at the meetup, if you are interested. Even before closing on the property, my property manager has already signed up a solid tenant. It took her less than a week.

[Johnson H.]

@Ken Lau - I thought you were on vacation? I definitely want to hear about it, you are a man of action! I almost had to close on a property while overseas, its hard to find a notary out there lol.

@Account Closed - Another reason why its great to lock up a 30 year fixed loan is that during the recession if you had a balloon due and property values declined 30%, you would probably have had to bring cash to the bank as the property did not have enough equity and the bank would not allow you to refinance until your new LTV was lowered. Where as if you have a 30 year fixed loan, during the next recession I can have negative equity on the property but positive cash flow and I can ride out the recession as my lender won't care because I kept the loan current and no baloon was due.

[J. Martin]

Maybe the bankers have been rubbing off on me too much @Johnson H. ! Funny, I have been focusing on the higher ROE with 30yr fixed, but yes - there is some peace of mind and reduction of interest rate risk and refinance risk with the 30yr fixed.. There are some lenders doing longer maturities on MF, with shorter-term variable rates, so that eliminates some of the refi risk.. Good point about being able to ride out a cycle from the CF perspective.. I feel the same way. @Account Closed , it's all good. To each their own. And I'll probably do the same as you when rates revert back up, and some of the cap rate risk is flushed out.. But I'd rather load up on fixed rate at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. Then switch to variable rate on MF when nominal rates are higher..

I actually wish I could get a 15yr fixed rate and maturity with a 30yr amortization on a residential loan. But I've only seen it on a 15yr am, and that's just too fast to repay the principal. I still need to eat!!! lol I will bet you a pint that 6mo LIBOR goes up by over 500bp from current rates before my most recent loan matures! Of course, you may have already made $10's of thousands by then in lower rates and sold the building, so maybe not as relevant for your investing style.. I'm in this for the ultra-long haul...

[David Sanchez]

Count me in as well. Looking forward to meeting all of you!

@James Zachary and @William Yeh , I'm in Clayton and will catch WC Bart too. Let's hookup and ride in together.

See you all then!

-David

[J. Martin]

@Adam Hofmann , @Andrew Fingado , @Andrew N. , @Arron Sweeney , @Bill Bockwoldt , @Chad Standish , @Chris Music , @Daniel S.

[J. Martin]

@Kevin Young , @Kris Lai , @Kwan Kim , @Lori Georgiou , @Lulu L. , @Matt Hanson , @Michaela G. , @Mohammad Foro , @Nick Fitzpatrick , @Omi C. , @Pete P.

[J. Martin]

@Steve Cook , @Tiffany Sabado

[Jimmy T]

Hey guys,

Thanks for the invite!

Local Rehabber/Investor here locally in the SF Bay Area. Looking forward to meeting each and every one of you guys!

Cheers,

Jimmy Tu

[Kathryn M.]

@J. Martin:

Thanks so much for organizing, I'll definitely be there!

Had fun and learned lots from my first ever meetup last week... (so many varied and successful strategies) and really looking forward to this one.

Quick summary: 4 in-state single family homes since 2009, struggling with "what to do now" as conditions are so different and I expect Cap rate to continue to fall.

[J. Martin]

@Andrew Strauss @Bob Pohl , @Dennis Follain , @IAN LIN , @Account Closed

[Dee Cross]

Thanks a bunch for keeping me in the loop! @J Martin

I'm free that day and definitely planning to be there.

As for brief re-intro...

I've been a member of BP for a little over a year now. I rarely post, but I'm logged in every week reading post/articles. I absolutely love the podcast!!! Guilty as charge, I'm on of those listeners that has not left a review yet. (Will Do). I check for it every Thursday.

Currently I have 1 SFH 3 bed 2 bath in Riverdale, Ga. I hope to purchase 1 or 2 homes this year. While searching I'm studying, and trying to learn as much as possible. I'm big on networking and an love meeting new people.

[Nick Fitzpatrick]

J Matrtin, count me in! Looks to be a great group and look forward to chatting with everyone!

Im in state with two rentals and just bought my first two out of state recently. Looking to talk with more people about various out of state opportunities.

[Daniel S.]

yesh.

Soy un long-term California buy and hold investor/GC/broker. Just closed on my third property (triplex in Oakland). Looking forward to seeing some familiar faces, and some new!

[Kris Lai]

thank you @J Martin - will definitely be there since it's right in my backyard! See you all there.